Naira | - Part 2

Stress Sign: Black Market’s Cheaper Than Official Naira Rate

LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – Nigeria’s new currency market is showing just how severe the country’s dollar shortage is. The naira is falling to levels weaker than the black-market rate in a foreign-exchange window set up for international investors and hedge funds last month. It’s a sign of how dysfunctional currency markets have become in Africa’s largest economy as officials enforce multiple exchange rates and trading and import restrictions. Funds including Chicago-based Frontaura Capital, South Africa’s Allan…

Nigeria Said to Let Market Set Naira Rate on Exchange Window

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LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – Nigeria’s central bank will let the market determine the naira’s rate in a new foreign-exchange window for portfolio investors as the nation struggles to revive its economy amid a dollar shortage. Naira forward contracts and banking stocks rose. Governor Godwin Emefiele told senior bankers that he would tolerate the naira weakening in the window, which started today, according to a person who attended meetings with the policy maker over the past two…

Egypt’s pound shows Nigeria must overcome its fear of floating free

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CAIRO (Capital Markets in Africa) – A currency devaluation may do little to fix Nigeria’s problems unless it follows the examples of emerging market peers Egypt, Argentina and Russia and embraces floating exchange rates. Grappling with the recession, widespread dollar shortages, a budget funding gap and international lenders’ reluctance to provide loans, Nigeria has moved tentatively to devalue its currency. The naira traded as low as 375 per dollar on Monday versus the official rate of…

Nigeria considers foreign exchange reforms as dollar shortages bite

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LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – Nigeria is considering amendments to its foreign exchange laws to curb illegal fund transfers and insider dealing and stop individuals holding hard currency outside the banking system, a draft bill seen by Reuters on Monday showed. But a senior member of the upper house of parliament said the Senate would reject the plans proposed by the Nigerian Law Reform Commission (NLRC), which advises the government. Africa’s largest economy is facing…

Nigeria – Will they or won’t they?

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LONDON (Capital Markets in Africa) — In recent weeks, investors in Nigeria have become increasingly perplexed about whether there will be a naira move before the end of 2015. On one hand the NDF market seems to indicate that there will be a move. And the consensus forecast for the value of the naira at the end of 2015 is NGN215:US$1, so in a rare show of unanimity economists seem to agree with the NDF…

What expert says: Nigerian naira overvalued or undervalued?

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Johannesburg, South Africa (Capital Markets in Africa) — The interbank rate was seemingly unmoved at USD/NGN197 in 2Q15, masking the intense backlog of US dollar demand. It is difficult to discern whether domestic liquidity conditions have improved since the election. The MPC’s rhetoric regarding the imbalance in the domestic foreign exchange market continues to favour exchange controls to restrict excess US dollar demand. Partial dollarisation and bouts of speculative activity are believed to have aggravated…

Nigerian currency is overvalued says Africa Economist, John Ashbourne

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LONDON (Capital Markets in Africa) — I would say that the currency remains overvalued. Nigeria’s balance of payments position has changed quite radically since the price of oil fell so sharply, and the currency has yet to fully adjust to this. Given low oil prices, relatively high inflation, and generalised dollar strength we would have expected that the naira would have weakened over the course of the second quarter. Indeed, almost every other SSA currency…

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