February 2017 |

A Prognosis of Ghana’s Macroeconomic Prospects in 2017

ACCRA (Capital Markets in Africa) – Ghana’s much-anticipated return to macroeconomic stability started to materialize in 2016, on the back of the ongoing fiscal adjustment program with the IMF and its associated front-loaded fiscal measures implemented since April 2015. The most notable indication of emerging macroeconomic stability in 2016 was observed in the foreign exchange market where the Ghana Cedi recorded a relatively more stable outturn against the major international trading currencies. The Cedi’s improved…

Insight into Nigeria’s Macroeconomic Climate in 2017

Posted on by The Editorial Team

LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – The novelty has worn off by now. Barring a minor miracle, the Nigerian economy entered a full-year recession in 2016, its first in two decades. Added to this, the simultaneous rise in unemployment (up to 13.9% according to most recent data) and inflation (18.6% in December) tilted the country into stagflation. A slump in oil export earnings on the back of major disruptions in oil production significantly contributed to…

South Africa’s Macroeconomic Prospects and Risks in 2017

Posted on by The Editorial Team

JOHANNESBURG (Capital Markets in Africa) – The South African macroeconomic landscape is expected to gradually improve this year following the weak growth performance recorded last year. In essence, growth should lift, inflation should fall and policy rates should remain stable. This view is underpinned by several developments. Importantly we expect global growth to continue to rise gradually in the period ahead as the recent increase in commodity prices boost growth in commodity-exporting EMs, improved household…

African market outlook for 2017: Opportunities and challenges

Posted on by The Editorial Team

LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – The global risk backdrop has been relatively supportive for emerging market (EM) FX and fixed income in early January 2017, as investors downplayed previous concerns about fiscal stimulus in the US under a Trump administration. This has underpinned the South African rand and local bonds and reinforced a receiving bias in swaps. However, there is a risk that upward pressure on UST yields and a bull USD cycle may…

Pan-African Banking Model: Balancing Risk and Reward

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LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – Africa-originated banks are increasingly becoming dominated players across the financial landscape in Africa. This is happening at a time when some western-based banks are scaling back their activities in the region. For the most part, these pan-African banks originate from large African economies (based on income) such as Nigeria (United Bank of Africa), South Africa (Standard Bank), Morocco (Attijariwafa Bank) but also small economies such as Togo where Ecobank…

AFRICA: TOP FIVE PREDICTIONS FOR 2017

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LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – At the start of 2017, the year ahead looks uncertain. This paper constitutes a brief look at NKC African Economics’ top five predictions for Africa for 2017. 1. President Trump will have a negligible impact The word that appears, to sum up Donald Trump’s effect on the international economy, and other areas like security, is ‘uncertainty’. However, there has been some consistency in his views expressed during the campaign…

How African Equities and Currencies feared in 2016

Posted on by The Editorial Team

LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) -African equity markets settled in the South Pole 2016 was a difficult year for African markets, each in varying degrees. Most of the African equity index ended in negative zone at the end of 2016, with six positive growths and twelve negative returns on a local currency basis. The performance was more disheartening on a US-dollar adjusted basis, with just four equity markets produced a positive return and average return across markets…

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