Emerging Markets |

UBS Wealth Has Good Things to Say About EM, Not South Africa

JOHANNESBURG (Capital Markets in Africa) – There’s one emerging market country that Michael Bolliger can’t get bullish about at the moment: South Africa. President Jacob Zuma is fighting to stay out of court before the African National Congress votes for a new leader in December. He’s pushing for his ex-wife to succeed him, but most analysts in a Bloomberg survey think the nation’s Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa probably will. It’s more noise for a market that has already paid a price…

Next Leg of Emerging-Bond Rally About to Start as Rate Cuts Loom

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LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – The bond rally across emerging markets may get fresh legs. Pressure is growing on central banks in developing nations to cut interest rates more aggressively as inflation eases and the Federal Reserve takes a gradual approach to policy change. That’s reducing the need for the high borrowing costs that deter capital outflows and protect emerging-market currencies. Looser monetary policy is a potential boon to already surging sovereign and corporate bonds in emerging…

Don’t Fear the Fed, EM Currencies Can Do Well, Societe Generale

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LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – Emerging-market currencies should comfortably ride out coming Federal Reserve monetary tightening, according to Societe Generale SA. The Fed’s slow and steady approach — expectations for hikes beyond Wednesday’s widely expected 25-basis-point move seem “extraordinarily subdued” — ensures that emerging market currencies will feel little impact, and carry trades will remain a viable strategy over the coming quarter, said Jason Daw, SocGen’s head of emerging-market foreign-exchange strategy in Singapore. “EM currencies…

Emerging Market Stocks Pare Monthly Gain as Trump Trade Falters

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LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – An index of emerging-market stocks retreated, paring its biggest monthly gain since March, as concern over the new U.S. administration’s unpredictability prompted investors to avoid riskier developing-nation assets. Yields on developing-nation bonds rose relative to U.S. Treasuries, though the Brazilian real and Polish zloty led gains in currencies against a weakening dollar. Equities in India, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, the Philippines, Malaysia, South Korea and Qatar led emerging stocks lower. MSCI’s…

History Shows Best Equity Gains Come From Emerging Markets

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LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – If you want world-beating returns from your equity investments year after year, avoiding emerging markets isn’t an option. The top 10 stock indexes that gave global investors the greatest returns in 2016 were all emerging or frontier markets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s not a fluke: over the past 20 years, nine out of 10 best-performing equity gauges have been in developing nations, the figures show. Investors often think of emerging…

Volatile Pound Stokes Life Into Emerging-Market Carry Trades

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LONDON (Capital Markets in Africa) – There’s life in the great emerging-market carry trade yet, although now it comes with a twist. Investors are betting a trade that reaped returns of more than 20 percent last year for borrowing dollars to buy Brazil’s real, Russia’s ruble and South Africa’s rand has further to run — only they’re using the battered British pound to fund long positions in emerging-market currencies. Citigroup Inc. on Monday named shorting the pound against the Russian…

Emerging Markets Gain in Week as Investors Ponder Trump Policies

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LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – Emerging-market currencies headed for their longest stretch of weekly gains in 20 months as investors questioned the pace of possible U.S. interest-rate increases. Ukraine’s hryvnia tumbled the most among peers and Turkey’s lira retreated after the biggest surge in more than a year. The MSCI gauge of developing-nation currencies climbed for a second day. A similar equity measure was little changed on Friday, on course for its third weekly advance. Brazil’s…

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