Economic Outlook |

INTO AFRICA: African Economic Outlook in 2016

LAGOS, Nigeria, Capital Markets in Africa — In 2015, Africa experienced its slowest economic growth rate since the 1998 global financial crisis. The Sub-Saharan Africa real GDP growth fell from 5.0 percent in 2014 to 3.75 percent in 2015 (IMF’s estimates). The downside risks in 2015 (low commodity prices, a slowing in China’s growth and uncertainty in the level of USA’s real growth rate) are expected to spill-over to 2016 but with reduced impact. As…

African Economic Watch: African Countries Release October Inflation Rates Statistics …

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Lagos, Nigeria, Capital Markets in Africa — Most of the African countries released the inflation rates figure for October in the week ending Sunday 15 November 2015. South Africa also released the production figures for the mining and manufacturing sector and Tanzania’s M3 money supply September data were also released by the Bank of Tanzania. Sudan’s annual inflation rate eased to 13.37 percent in October from a revised 13.56 percent in September, a monthly report…

Mali Economy Will Slow To 4.9% Due To Dwindling Manufacturing Output — IMF

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Bamako, Mali, Capital Markets in Africa — Mali’s economic growth is set to slow in 2015 to 4.9 percent, as a result of dwindling manufacturing output, in spite of a strong harvest, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a statement on Wednesday. The Washington based institution said following its annual Article 4 consultation on Mali’s economy that inflation would also remain moderate at around 2.4 percent this year, up from 0.9 percent last year,…

In Tunisia, Second Deadly Attack on Tourists in Four Months Is Credit Negative

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Tunis, Tunisia (Capital Markets in Africa) — Last Friday, a Tunisian student attacked foreign tourists at a beach resort in Sousse, Tunisia, killing at least 38. It was the second large-scale attack on foreign tourists in the country in just four months, following two Tunisian gunmen killing 22 people at a museum in Tunis in March. Although Tunisia’s (Ba3 stable) successful democratic transition between 2011 and 2014 and our outlook for its economic recovery prompted…

Egypt’s Draft Budget Hints at Slower Fiscal Consolidation, a Credit Negative

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Cairo, Egypt (Capital Markets in Africa) — Last Thursday, Egypt’s (B3 stable) Ministry of Finance announced the draft budget for the 2016 fiscal year that starts 1 July. The draft budget, which the cabinet approved and awaits sign-off from President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, projects a fiscal deficit of 9.9% of GDP, down from the revised budget deficit of 10.8% during the current fiscal year. However, the budget hints at a slower fiscal consolidation pace than…

Zambia’s Midyear Budget Deficit Is Double Original Projection, a Credit Negative

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Lusaka, Zambia (Capital Markets in Africa) — On 16 June, Zambia (B1 negative) Finance Minister Alexander Chikwanda released the midyear budget update, which revealed a deficit of ZMW20 billion (roughly $2.7 billion, or around 10% of GDP) for the first six months of this year, more than double the original projection. He also sought parliamentary approval to nearly double the external borrowing limit to access international capital markets to plug the deficit. The credit-negative larger-than-expected…

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