The Markets

JOHANNESBURG (Capital Markets in Africa) – Renaissance Capital, which has correctly predicted eight out of nine sovereign rating decisions in emerging Europe and the Middle East since May, is calling a downgrade to junk for South Africa next month. That view is at odds with the majority in the Bloomberg survey, but Renaissance Global Chief Economist Charles Robertson says South Africa’s fundamentals have deteriorated significantly since May when Moody’s Investors Service affirmed its Baa3 rating….

ABIDJAN (Capital Markets in Africa) – Ivory Coast plans to sell as much as 1.5 billion euros ($1.6 billion) in bonds to refinance existing debt. The West African nation is planning to issue two tranches of debt with a weighted average life of 11 to 15 years and 30 years, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because they’re not authorized to speak publicly about it. It plans to…

NEW YORK (Capital Markets in Africa) – Crawling or stalling? That’s the question hanging over the U.S. economy amid fresh evidence the once-hot labor market is losing steam. Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 136,000 in September, according to a Labor Department report Friday that missed the median estimate of economists. That brought the average gain this year to 161,000, compared with 223,000 throughout 2018. On top of that, average hourly earnings rose 2.9% from a year earlier, the weakest…

LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – Platinum miners have finally hit pay dirt with soaring prices and a weak South African rand. But the mood in the industry has been scarred by years of deep losses. Even though analysts say companies like Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. and Sibanye Gold Ltd. will reap their best profits in years, executives are cautious about restarting dividends. Labor disputes, currency volatility and the need to reduce debt levels are some of the reasons…

JOHANNESBURG (Capital Markets in Africa) – There’s still a month to go until Moody’s Investors Service reviews South Africa’s sovereign rating, but foreign investors aren’t taking chances. Overseas ownership of South African government debt fell to 37% of the total at the end of August, from as high as 43% in March 2018, according to National Treasury data. That’s the lowest level since February 2017, suggesting some investors aren’t waiting for Moody’s to downgrade the…

LONDON (Capital Markets in Africa) – The frontier between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland remains the essential conundrum of Brexit. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is determined to leave the European Union by Oct. 31, with or without a negotiated transition deal. But any departure must take into account the historically fraught Irish border, which is set to become the only land crossing between the EU and the U.K. after Brexit. A controversial…

LONDON (Capital Markets in Africa) – It’s hardly controversial to short the pound, but Crispin Odey and his ilk also have their eyes on a low-tax, low-regulation, no-deal Brexit paradise. Philip Hammond is officially “outside the tent,” to use Lyndon Johnson’s phrase. After losing his job as U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer and then his badge as a Conservative MP by rebelling against Boris Johnson’s hardball Brexit strategy, Hammond has kicked up an almighty stink by accusing Johnson…