GLOBAL INSIGHT: Covid Debt of Emerging Nations — Who’s at Risk?

GLOBAL INSIGHT: Covid Debt of Emerging Nations — Who’s at Risk?

JOHANNESBURG (Capital Markets in Africa) — In 2020, emerging market debt rocketed higher. Has necessary pandemic stimulus planted the seeds of future fiscal crisis? Bloomberg Economics’ analysis shows South Africa is vulnerable but Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, and Russia are less exposed. Persistently low-interest rates partially offset the impact of higher borrowing. An increase in interest rates would raise the pressure, but from current low levels, the impact is likely manageable. Most of the debt…

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Kenya Sees Strong 2021 GDP Growth After Dodging Contraction

Kenya Sees Strong 2021 GDP Growth After Dodging Contraction

NAIROBI (Capital Markets in Africa) — Kenya’s economy is expected to expand this year as activity resumes following Covid-19 lockdowns, boosting tax revenue and government spending. East Africa’s largest economy will probably expand 6.4% this year and growth will slow to 5.5% in 2022, with scheduled elections likely to dampen activity, Treasury said in a report on its website. The Treasury estimates that gross domestic product increased 0.6% in 2020, which would make it one…

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Zambia’s Fuel Subsidy Boost Hurts Chances of Winning Over IMF

Zambia’s Fuel Subsidy Boost Hurts Chances of Winning Over IMF

LUSAKA (Capital Markets in Africa) — Zambia’s move this month to further subsidize fuel prices highlights the government’s balancing act of seeking to retain power while convincing the International Monetary Fund to approve a bailout before an election scheduled for August. The finance ministry removed a 16% value-added tax on gasoline and diesel prices from Jan. 1, which it said was necessary to avoid increases at the pump. The IMF opposes subsidies and that could…

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Ghana GDP Contracts For a Second Quarter as Industry Stalls

Ghana GDP Contracts For a Second Quarter as Industry Stalls

ACCRA (Capital Markets in Africa) — Ghana’s economy contracted for a second straight quarter in the three months through September, even as the government eased restrictions imposed to curb the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. Gross domestic product declined 1.1% in the third quarter from a year earlier, government statistician Samuel Kobina Annim told reporters Wednesday in the capital, Accra. That compares with a contraction of 3.2% in the second quarter. The data may put…

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Moody’s downgrades Namibia’s ratings to Ba3, maintains negative outlook

Moody’s downgrades Namibia’s ratings to Ba3, maintains negative outlook

NAMIBIA (Capital Markets in Africa) – Moody’s Investors Service (“Moody’s”) downgraded the long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings of the Government of Namibia to Ba3. The outlook remains negative. The downgrade reflects a further weakening in Namibia’s fiscal strength despite policy statements of plans to rein in the fiscal deficit. The debt burden is now markedly higher, it will continue to rise for the foreseeable future; debt affordability is weakening. The coronavirus shock continues to…

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Moody’s changes outlook on Gabon’s rating to stable from positive, affirms Caa1 rating

Moody’s changes outlook on Gabon’s rating to stable from positive, affirms Caa1 rating

GABON (Capital Markets in Africa): Moody’s Investors Service (“Moody’s”) has today affirmed the Government of Gabon’s Caa1 long-term issuer ratings and changed the outlook to stable from positive. The rating on Gabon’s foreign currency senior unsecured debt has also been affirmed at Caa1. The key driver for the outlook change to stable is Gabon’s more limited institutional improvements than previously seemed possible, combined with rising liquidity pressures from the coronavirus crisis and associated oil price…

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Africa to Fall Behind World Growth as Region Faces Slow Recovery

Africa to Fall Behind World Growth as Region Faces Slow Recovery

LAGOS (Capital ) — Sub-Saharan African economies face a slow recovery from the coronavirus pandemic and the region’s economic growth will fall behind the rest of the world next year, according to the International Monetary Fund. Gross domestic product in the region is projected to expand 3.1% next year, compared with a forecast of 5.2% for the world economy. This partly reflects sub-Saharan Africa’s relatively limited space for fiscal expansion, the Washington-based lender said in…

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