Libyan Civil War Cease-Fire Talks in Russia Break Down (

TRIPOLI (Capital Markets in Africa) – Talks to end Libya’s civil war broke down after the commander leading the assault on the capital rejected a proposed truce agreement, throwing open the door to a possible renewal of fighting and deeper foreign intervention.

The president of Turkey, which had co-sponsored the talks along with Russia, delivered a menacing message to military leader Khalifa Haftar, who left Moscow before dawn on Tuesday without signing the deal. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who supports Libya’s internationally recognized government, also threw down the gauntlet to Haftar’s backer, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, demanding he act to nail down the truce.

“If attacks on the legitimate government of Libya continue, we will never refrain from teaching a lesson to Haftar,” Erdogan told members of his ruling AK Party. “We did our part, it is up to Putin and his team now.”

The collapse of talks, which took place as a provisional cease-fire was shakily holding around the capital, Tripoli, was the latest in a long list of failed attempts to secure an agreement between the country’s warring parties.

That may help to explain the lack of an impact on oil markets, even though Libya holds Africa’s largest proven crude reserves. Benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.3% lower in London on Tuesday, after falling 1.2% the previous day, as tension surrounding the confrontation between the U.S. and Iran eased.

Increasingly Prominent
The Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement that Haftar “welcomed” the draft agreement signed by Sarraj, but took two days to discuss it with allied tribes before signing it. An agreement in principle was reached to extend the temporary cease-fire that took effect over the weekend, the statement said.

It wasn’t clear what Haftar objected to, but his rival, Libya’s United Nations-recognized Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, had demanded that he retreat to lines his forces held before the offensive on Tripoli began nine months ago. Sarraj had signed the accord on Monday, but Haftar asked for more time to consider the agreement, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had said.

Russia and Turkey, which had assumed increasingly assertive roles in the Libyan conflict as they jockey for influence in the Mediterranean, had brought Libya’s feuding leaders to the talks after concluding the intervention was too costly.

Russian mercenaries back Haftar’s forces, as do Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. Former colonial power Italy also has a military training mission numbering several hundred troops, and on Tuesday, its premier didn’t rule out enlarging it. Turkish soldiers are training forces loyal to Sarraj, and Turkish-backed Syrian rebels have also joined the fray.

There has been no immediate signal from Russia that it would withdraw support from Haftar following his rejection of the proposed accord. Speaking in Sri Lanka on Tuesday, Lavrov said Moscow and Ankara “will continue our efforts” to secure an agreement.

Years of Turmoil
Russia and Turkey pushed the fighting parties to accept the cease-fire as Libya endured its worst violence since the 2011 NATO-backed ouster of Muammar Qaddafi, which ushered in years of instability that divided the country between rival administrations.

Haftar is a former Qaddafi-era military officer who later fell out with the autocratic leader and went into exile in the U.S. He returned to Libya after the start of the uprising and in 2014 launched a military campaign with the declared aim of routing Islamist extremists in the country’s east.

His Libyan National Army then moved on to take control of key oil facilities and gained an upper hand in Libya’s south before moving on Tripoli, seeking to oust the prime minister, whose government has struggled to assert itself over much of the country.

Haftar launched the offensive on Tripoli, which has killed more than 2,000 people and displaced tens of thousands, as the UN was laying the ground for a political conference to unite the country.

Berlin Meeting
Russian government adviser Vitaly Naumkin said Haftar’s rejection of the deal “is not a total collapse.” Both sides are interested in going to an international conference on Libya on Sunday “with as strong a position as possible,” state news service RIA Novosti cited him as saying.

The meeting in Berlin is meant to secure an agreement to keep foreign powers out of the conflict. Putin briefed German leader Angela Merkel on Monday’s meeting in Moscow that evening, according to a statement from the Kremlin.

Libya is a gateway for migrants destined for Europe, so the European Union is desperate for a settlement to help ease political tensions across the bloc over rising anti-immigrant sentiment.

 “We have worked with our Russian partners all day long for the factions in Libya to sign a cease-fire letter and we drafted a text,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said alongside Lavrov on Monday. “We have taken into account suggestions, especially from the Haftar side, to reach a mutual understanding.”

The UN envoy to Libya, Ghassan Salame, had warned on Sunday ahead of the talks that “some people are still dreaming” of a military solution to the conflict.

“In order to push for a peaceful solution, you need to put something on the table,” he said. “You need to put your leverage into action.”

Source: Bloomberg Business News