Economic Outlook |

Morocco: Growth projected at 4.5% over the medium term

RABAT (Capital Markets in Africa) – The International Monetary Fund projected Morocco’s real GDP growth to decelerate from 4.4% in 2017 to 3.1% in 2018, as agricultural production returns to its normal level following high output last year. But it expected growth to accelerate gradually to about 4.5% in the medium term and to remain favourable in case of improved external conditions and sustained reform implementation. Further, it forecast the inflation rate to average 1.3%…

Egypt Economy: Four Tailwinds for Economic Growth in 2018

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CAIRO (Capital Markets in Africa) – Egypt’s economy took a battering after the revolution of 2011, with annual growth declining to 3.1% in 2011-16 from an average of 6.2% in 2005-10. But the economy should recover in 2018, helped by four tailwinds: declining inflation, lower interest rates, recovering tourism and gas production from a new field. Egypt’s macroeconomic conditions were dire in 2016. Foreign currency was in short supply, resulting in the emergence of a…

Kenyan Inflation Rate Rises for First Month in Five in January

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NAIROBI (Capital Markets in Africa) – Kenyan inflation accelerated for the first month in five in January as corn prices rose and crude costs increased. Consumer prices climbed 4.8 percent from a year earlier, the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday in a statement emailed from the capital, Nairobi. Prices advanced 1.3 percent in the month. A government-imposed cap on commercial lending rates, a drought and two disputed elections have weighed on economic growth in…

Nigerian Rates Easing Still Some Way Off Even as Inflation Slows

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LAGOS (capital Markets in Africa) – The slowdown in Nigeria inflation to a 20-month low may not be enough to prompt the central bank to start easing just yet. The inflation rate in Africa’s most-populous nation fell to 15.4 percent from 15.9 percent in November, the Abuja-based National Bureau of Statistics said in an emailed report Tuesday. The median estimate of seven economists in a Bloomberg survey was for the rate to remain unchanged. Prices rose 0.6 percent…

Rand Bounce Back Seen at Risk on South Africa Political Outlook

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JOHANNESBURG (Capital Markets in Africa) – South Africa’s politics and economic outlook could trip up the gains the rand has managed to make in bouncing back from an expected credit-rating downgrade, analysts say. The rand rallied as much as 3.2 percent on Monday, overturning its losses on Friday when S&P Global Ratings demoted local currency-denominated debt to junk, amid relief that Moody’s Investors Service retained its investment-grade rating. Moody’s has warned it may do the same…

Kenya Stares at Bleak 2018 Outlook in Vote Mess Aftermath

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NAIROBI (Capital Markets in Africa) – Kenya is facing an economic storm in 2018 in the aftermath of two disputed elections. Saddled with the triple threat of austerity measures to pay for those votes, slowing credit growth and new accounting rules for banks, Kenya now risks missing the government’s forecast for 6 percent economic growth next year, according to lenders including Nairobi-based Stanbic Bank Kenya Ltd. Investec Bank Ltd. strategist Chris Becker says expansion could slow to as…

Malawi Sees at Least 5.5% Growth This Year; Plans Power Boost

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LILONGWE (Capital Markets in Africa) – Malawi’s economy will expand at least 5.5 percent this year as the country recovers from a drought that ravaged crops throughout southern Africa, President Peter Mutharika said. The country also plans to bolster its power-generating capacity in the next decade, using a $200 million World Bank loan to help to raise the generation to 2,500 megawatts from 350 megawatts now, he told lawmakers Friday in the capital, Lilongwe. Of the current installed…

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