The Markets

NAIROBI (Capital Markets in Africa) – Even though Kenya’s shilling depreciated for the last six weeks to the weakest since January, the worst may be yet to come. High government spending may heap pressure on the shilling. Kenya’s fiscal deficit this year is forecast by the International Monetary Fund to be 6.6 percent of gross domestic product. Among the region’s Eurobond nations, only Zambia’s is higher. If the deficit widens, Kenya’s relatively low interest rates…

JOHANNESBURG (Capital Markets in Africa) –  An expected seasonal dollar-liquidity crunch means the outlook for South Africa’s rand is anything but merry as the year draws to a close. Funding requirements of large European and Japanese banks going into year-end, together with the Federal Reserve’s tighter monetary policy, will probably lead to greater demand for dollars and rising offshore funding costs, according to Mehul Daya and Walter de Wet. That would weigh on the rand, one of the…

LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – Despite reports of fraud, the success of initial coin offerings compares favorably to conventional technology projects and early-stage ventures. Ernst & Young recently published a damning analysis of 2017’s initial coin offerings. The odd thing is it concentrates on the financial performance of the cryptocurrency market’s equivalent to an initial public offering in the mainstream investment world since the end of 2017. That does not reflect on the competence and sincerity of their…

LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) MTN Group Ltd.’s battles with Nigerian authorities over $10 billion in repatriated funds and back taxes could increase risk in South Africa’s financial system, the Reserve Bank said. Africa’s largest wireless carrier by subscribers is facing mounting pressure to return $8.1 billion to Nigeria after its central bank argued that the Johannesburg-based company had repatriated funds illegally. Separately, the West African nation’s attorney general’s office alleges the company owes $2…