Economy | - Part 87

2015 outlook commodity for oil, copper, gold and aluminium

Crude oil prices to decline by 42% in 2015The crude oil market in 2015 is expected to be more volatile and more uncertain than it was in 2014. In 2014, the Bloomberg Brent Crude Oil Total Return Sub-Index decreased by 47.6%, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Sub-index dropped by 41.7% last year.Crude oil prices are expected to remain low through 2015 until the excess supply in the market is corrected. It is forecast to…

Egyptian pound under pressure

Posted on by The Editorial Team

Recent FX reserve losses highlight that external pressures on Egyptian pounds ( EGP) have not yet materially abated. But still, it is anticipated that Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will keep EGP stable in the run-up to the March Economic Summit. Mobilizing enough GCC external aid and international investments will likely be crucial to support EGP further out, given the still large external funding needs and the upcoming parliamentary elections. Political economy matters suggest EGP…

IMF’s 2015 growth forecast for Egypt, Algeria and Sudan

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Egypt’s Fiscal deficit to narrow to 11% of GDP in current fiscal yearThe International Monetary Fund projected Egypt’s real GDP growth rate at 3.8% in the fiscal year that ends in June 2015 and at 4.3% in FY2015/16, up from 2.2% in FY2013/14. It forecast Egypt’s annual average inflation rate at 9.7% in FY2014/15 and 9.9% in FY2015/16, down from 10.1% in FY2013/14. Further, it expected the growth of broad money at 16.7% in the…

Drop in oil prices to support global growth

Posted on by The Editorial Team

The World Bank anticipated that the decline in global oil prices would have significant macroeconomic, financial and policy implications on the global economy. First, the Bank pointed out that sustained lower global oil prices would contribute to global growth, would temporarily reduce the global inflation rate in 2015 and would generate substantial real income shifts to oil importers from oil-exporters. But it noted that the recovery in global growth would be slow. It said that…

IMF reduces emerging economies growth to 4.3% in 2015

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Economic growth reduced to 4.3% in 2015, downside risks persistThe International Monetary Fund reduced its projection for growth in emerging markets and developing economies to 4.3% in 2015 from an October forecast of 4.9%. It attributed the revision to lower growth in China and its negative impact on Emerging Asia, a much weaker economic outlook for Russia and its spill over on Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and to lower potential growth in commodity exporters….

Republic of Gabon assigned Ba3 rating with stable outlook

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Moody’s had assigned first-time local and foreign-currency issuer ratings of Ba3 to the government of the Republic of Gabon and the outlook on the ratings is stable. The key credit strengths underpinning the Ba3 rating of the Republic of Gabon include (1) robust growth prospect, (2) strong government balance sheet, and (3) reduced external vulnerability afforded by its membership of the CFA franc zone. These are balanced by credit constraints that include (1) the high reliance…

Broadly stable global sovereign outlook for 2015

Posted on by The Editorial Team

The global sovereign outlook for 2015 is broadly stable – a change from the diverse global trends seen in recent years, according to Moody’s 2015 Outlook: Global Sovereigns. The financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis laid bare weaknesses in the credit quality of euro area sovereigns which resulted in widespread downgrades. In contrast, the economic benefits derived from the ‘commodities supercycle’ allied with structural and institutional reforms allowed material credit improvements (and consequently rating…

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