Economy

JOHANNESBURG (Capital Markets in Africa)  – South Africa may have to pay a premium if it taps international bond markets before a credit-rating review later this month and elections in May, according to investors who attended meetings with Treasury officials in London. The discussions started in the British capital on Monday and continue there today before moving to Boston and New York. Though they were billed as budget updates, the Treasury said last month it was…

HARARE (Capital Markets in Africa) – Zimbabwe’s Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube touted the health of his country’s economy even as the southern African nation experiences fuel shortages and the highest inflation rate since 2008. The government has put in place measures to liberalize the currency, curb spending and improve the management of state-owned companies he said in an interview with Bloomberg TV in Washington. Last month the country scrapped its insistence that local securities known as bond…

JOHANNESBURG (Capital Markets in Africa) – South Africa’s economic growth will probably remain stunted unless household spending and investment pick up. While the economy emerged from a recession in the three months through September, a report from the statistics office on Tuesday will probably show growth slowed in the fourth quarter, according to the median estimate of 17 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Gross domestic product is estimated to have expanded 0.7 percent in 2018, according to…

JOHANNESBURG (Capital Markets in Africa) – South Africa’s economy probably slowed in the last quarter of 2018, hit by weaker consumer spending and manufacturing as well as lower mining output. The economy should recover in 1Q, albeit slightly, as disruptions caused by electricity blackouts and a poor performance in the mining sector keep a lid on growth. We expect growth of 1.0% quarter-over-quarter (annualized) in 4Q18 compared with consensus of 1.2%. Our projection for 1Q19 is 1.6%…

LONDON (Capital Markets in Africa) – The narrowing inflation differential between South Africa and the U.S. signals long-term support for the rand and local-currency bonds, according to Standard Bank Group Ltd. Consumer-price increases in Africa’s most-industrialized economy slowed to 4 percent in January, in the lower half of the central bank’s 3 percent to 6 percent target range. That curbed the inflation differential with the U.S. to below its ten-year average. “This partly reflects the SARB’s success…

LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – Muhammadu Buhari will have little time to celebrate his resounding victory in Nigeria’s presidential election before facing the multitude of problems dogging Africa’s biggest oil producer. The legal challenge to last weekend’s vote promised by his main rival, Atiku Abubakar, is the least of his worries. Add to that a listless economy, Islamist State attacks wreaking havoc in the northeast and an explosive cocktail of worsening poverty and rapid population growth. The 76-year-old former general came to…

DARKA (Capital Markets in Africa) – Senegalese President Macky Sall won a decisive majority in elections after overseeing years of high economic growth and the construction of modern infrastructure, extending his term of office by five years. Sall, a 57-year-old former geological engineer, won 58 percent of the votes, well above the 50 percent needed to avoid a second round, according to results announced by the National Vote Counting Commission on Thursday. The outcome gives Sall a…