The Editorial Team |

Madagascar Court Declares Rajoelina Winner of Presidential Vote

LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – Madagascar’s Constitutional Court declared Andry Rajoelina the winner of last month’s runoff presidential election his rival says was rigged. Rajoelina, who previously served as president from 2009 to 2014, obtained 55.7 percent of the vote, compared with 44.3 percent for Marc Ravalomanana, Jean-Eric Rakotoarisoa, the president of the court, told reporters Tuesday in the capital, Antananarivo. Rajoelina will be sworn in later this month, he said. The announcement is based on results…

Fracture in Kenyan Ruling Party May Revive Rift Valley Tensions

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NAIROBI (Capital Markets in Africa) – An alliance that helped deliver Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta two terms in office is fracturing, reviving tensions in the country’s Rift Valley region that was wracked by widespread violence a decade ago. The deputy chairman of the ruling Jubilee Party stepped down on Sunday after saying Deputy President William Ruto shouldn’t be allowed to succeed Kenyatta. That undermines an arrangement in which Ruto delivered the backing of his Rift Valley constituents for Kenyatta’s…

Nedbank Sees Short-Term Rally, Longer-Term Pain for Rand in 2019

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JOHANNESBURG (Capital Markets in Africa) – The rand’s wild ride isn’t over, according to Nedbank analysts Reezwana Sumad and Walter de Wet. A slowdown in global growth, an escalation in the trade war, an uncertain Brexit and higher global interest rates are just some of the risks the currency will face this year. Nedbank base case sees rand in range of 14-15 per dollar in 2019 From a technical perspective, the USDZAR could rally toward 13 in the…

Deep in a Panama Rainforest, First Quantum Bondholders Spy Prize

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LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – First Quantum Minerals Ltd. is poised to fire up a giant copper project in Panama, thousands of miles from its beleaguered minesin Zambia. For bondholders, that’s a welcome distance. The Canadian copper company is ramping up production at the Cobre Panama plant this year, even as a mining tax hike forces it to shed jobs and cut production at its Zambian facilities. With Panama slated to become a more prominent place of operations, bondholders should benefit…

Congo Opposition Party Says Tshisekedi Is `Presumed’ Vote Winner

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KINSHASA (Capital Markets in Africa) – The Democratic Republic of Congo’s largest opposition party said its leader was the “presumed” winner of last week’s election and encouraged talks with the nation’s outgoing president to prepare a transition. Union for Democracy and Social Progress head Felix Tshisekedi is one of three candidates in with a chance of succeeding Joseph Kabila, who has ruled the world’s biggest cobalt producer since 2001. He’s competing against rival opposition leader Martin Fayulu and Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary,…

China Eases Back on Mideast, African Oil After Buying Binge

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LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – China’s crude oil purchases from the Middle East and West Africa dropped to a four-month low in December, following a buying binge the previous month that saw the Asian country’s stockpiles swell. Observed flows to China from the two regions dropped to 5.04 million barrels a day, the lowest since August, after reaching a 2018-high of 6.45 million barrels daily in November, ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. Most of the…

Zambia Mine Tax Increase Risks Cutting Revenues, JPMorgan Says

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LUSAKA (Capital Markets in Africa) – Zambia’s mining-tax increase could lower government revenues instead of boosting them as copper miners fire workers and curb production, according to JPMorgan Cazenove. Under the higher royalties introduced on Jan. 1, almost one-third of the country’s mine output is unprofitable, JPMorgan said in a note to clients dated Jan. 7. That means the new tax regime could backfire on Africa’s second-biggest copper producer. “These higher-cost operations are also the more labor-intensive…

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