The Editorial Team |

South Africa’s Economic Growth Seen Stagnant as Confidence Wanes

JOHANNESBURG (Capital Markets in Africa) – South Africa’s economic growth will probably remain stunted unless household spending and investment pick up. While the economy emerged from a recession in the three months through September, a report from the statistics office on Tuesday will probably show growth slowed in the fourth quarter, according to the median estimate of 17 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Gross domestic product is estimated to have expanded 0.7 percent in 2018, according to…

Egypt’s Private Sector Is Hurting But More Optimistic on Future

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CAIRO (Capital Markets in Africa) – Private sector business activity in Egypt slowed in February to its lowest level since September 2017, as companies struggled with liquidity and new orders continued to fall, according to an Emirates NBD-Markit survey. The Purchasing Managers Index for the non-oil private sector fell for the sixth consecutive month, to 48.2 from 48.5 in January — well below the 50 mark that signals a growth in business activity. The sustained…

What to Watch in Commodities: Trade Fever, China’s Fate, Exxon

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JOHANNESBURG (Capital Markets in Africa) – Commodity investors will navigate a powerful array of events this week that’ll shed light on the most pressing topics of the moment: will there be a trade deal between the U.S. and China; what’s next in energy, including priorities for behemoths Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp.; and how is the outlook shaping up in global agricultural markets this year? In China, leaders gather in Beijing to detail priorities for the year as…

SOUTH AFRICA PREVIEW: Growth Looks Feeble, 1Q a Touch Better

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JOHANNESBURG (Capital Markets in Africa) – South Africa’s economy probably slowed in the last quarter of 2018, hit by weaker consumer spending and manufacturing as well as lower mining output. The economy should recover in 1Q, albeit slightly, as disruptions caused by electricity blackouts and a poor performance in the mining sector keep a lid on growth. We expect growth of 1.0% quarter-over-quarter (annualized) in 4Q18 compared with consensus of 1.2%. Our projection for 1Q19 is 1.6%…

Fifth Time Isn’t a Charm for Algeria’s President: Bobby Ghosh

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ALGIERS (Capital Markets in Africa) – When the Arab Spring rolled across North Africa in 2011, it seemed almost to skip over Algeria. Although the country was ripe for revolution — like its neighbors, it had the combustible combination of chronic youth unemployment and corrupt, repressive leadership — the protests there were almost desultory in comparison with demonstrations in Tunisia and Egypt. As a result, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika did not suffer the fate of his…

Cheap Stocks May Boost West African Bourse After Terrible 2018

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ABDJIAN (Capital Markets in Africa) – Cheap valuations on West Africa’s regional stock exchange are tipped to improve its attractiveness as strength in two of the continent’s fastest-growing economies helps spur a rebound from a record slump last year. Stocks traded on the Bourse Regionale des Valeurs Mobilieres — an exchange covering seven Francophone countries and Guinea-Bissau — could be among Africa’s best performers in 2019, said Aly-Khan Satchu, chief executive officer of Nairobi-based Rich Management…

Good Times Beckon for Nigeria Bonds, Not So Much for Stocks

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LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – A growing divergence in Nigeria’s bond and equity markets may continue, as a president who’s wary of free markets extends his term for another for years. After Muhammadu Buhari won a resounding victory in his bid for re-election as Nigeria’s president, stocks slumped among the most in the world last week. Meanwhile, local bonds gave the biggest returns within EM, according to Bloomberg indexes. What gives? For equity investors,…

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